The jobs report may not be as bad as it appears at first.

As it turns out, seasonally, August is the hardest month to nail down for the BLS.

The summer vacation season may play some havoc in the distribution of responses. With seasonal employment typically peaking in July, and with pay periods for seasonal workers typically being one-week intervals, it seems probable that more of the decline in seasonal payrolls may get captured in the first reading of August payrolls, than in subsequent counts wherein a higher incidence of establishments with longer pay periods get incorporated into the data.

This may account for the unusually high incidence of August payrolls surprising on the downside in the first release than being revised substantially higher in subsequent release.

August is revised higher by an average of 62,000 jobs in the following months. If that holds true (which ADP reports 201,000 private new jobs do seem to contradict the government report, so does the non-seasonal number), August would report 158,000 jobs created.

We will have to wait and see, but I think it will be revised higher. Everything around July seemed to indicate other than 96,000 jobs.

Retail sales were surprisingly strong, ISM data was stronger, the ADP report was 201,000 new private jobs, etc.