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NICEY-1026620

Articles Posted: 9  Links Seeded: 32
Member Since: 4/2009  Last Seen: 5/17/2012

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Americans return to the Labor Force - Jobs Report

Seeded on Fri May 7, 2010 9:32 AM EDT
Read Article
business, jobs-report, unemployment, bls
Seeded by Nicey-1026620
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Sifting thru the BLS jobs reports there's some good data.

Looking at the civilian workforce and participation rates it appears a corner was made a few months ago and compared to the "non-institutional population - QED people who can work" the participation rate is increasing.

That means people are returning to the labor force to look for jobs. One of the statistical quirks (just like on the good side when people leave the labor force, it makes the unemployment rate "look" better) the unemployment rate ticked up to 9.9%

So while people are returning, it is certainly still hard to find a job.

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  • Public Discussion (7)
flyfishva

And there is bad data-

here's the real numbers-funny how the 188,000 of the 290,000 is Birth/Death Model..so in essence only 36,000 real jobs created as 66,000 are Census and 188,000 are birth /death model.

  • 1 vote
Reply#1 - Fri May 7, 2010 9:59 AM EDT
Nicey-1026620

All BS-here's the real numbers-funny how the 188,000 of the 290,000 is Birth/Death Model..so in essence only 36,000 real jobs created as 66,000 are Census and 188,000 are birth /death model.

False.

Even if you wanted to count ther birth/death model at the most extreme (*which is when lots of jobs are being lost btw, it doesn't follow well*), what was the monthly average at the last benchmark?

March 2008 to March 2009 it was this...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aXoQJ14iSlWg

824,000 divided by 12 months is what? = 68,000 a month.

If you read that whole article,

“We are probably still underestimating job losses,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “There could be another 30,000 to 40,000” that the data isn’t picking up, he said.

By October 2009 they estimated the model was only off by 30,000 to 40,000.

If you simply look at a historical trend of the birth/death model, it tends to not track 1 to 1 during downturns. This downturn was particularly harsh and caused a mass shedding of jobs making the data flawed. As the labor markets have normalized that data has returned to better estimates.

And next time look up this information before posting on a thread of mine. Simple math here.

If you want a real complicated review of their methedology you can look here:

http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdtech.htm

    Reply#2 - Fri May 7, 2010 10:15 AM EDT
    flyfishva

    Here is the birth/death model and it is counted. 188K jobs added from birth death model. And it is all propoganda. UI rate up 9.9%-U6 rate which is probably the real UI rate is 17.1%.

    http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

    • 1 vote
    Reply#3 - Fri May 7, 2010 10:27 AM EDT
    Nicey-1026620

    I'm not even gonna be nice about this.

    This is the Birth/Death adjustment! Not the benchmark. Do you know the difference?

    The birth/death adjustment has been done for a long time. It's *ALWAYS* a part of the jobs report.

    The benchmark is what I posted in the other link, you didn't bother to read.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aXoQJ14iSlWg

    Every year the total adjustment is benchmarked and corrected.

    You might also note the birth/death model adjusted jobs created down -427k in January. But since it's wrong, let's just take that away and say 427k more jobs were created.

      #3.1 - Fri May 7, 2010 11:09 AM EDT
      Nicey-1026620

      UI rate up 9.9%-U6 rate which is probably the real UI rate is 17.1%.

      ?

      UI? You're going on the ignore list.

      Tell me what UI is?

      UI is unemployment insurance.

        #3.2 - Fri May 7, 2010 11:10 AM EDT
        flyfishva

        Gee..I'm devastated..drink more of the kool-aide!

          #3.3 - Fri May 7, 2010 1:45 PM EDT
          Reply
          garyray-501488

          Job growth is key to the recovery.

          ---Peace

            Reply#4 - Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:28 AM EDT
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